Sports betting predictions in New Zealand: what they actually cost

Updated October 2026

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Predictions are free at the surface and expensive underneath. Every price on a betting app embeds a margin that the bookmaker keeps on every unit wagered, every “boosted odds” tag comes with terms that cut into the upside, and every tip — even a correct one — sits on top of a market that is already priced against the bettor. This page is a guide to the cost side of sports predictions: how a price is built, what a value bet really is, what tools TAB NZ and its online sister brand Betcha give a New Zealand punter, and why no tip is ever certain.

Current as of October 30, 2026, checked against the Racing Industry Act 2020 as amended and the Department of Internal Affairs’ published position on the betting prohibition.

Sports prediction apps in New Zealand: what the apps actually offer

A phone is where most New Zealand punters meet a prediction. Two TAB NZ brands sit in that slot, TAB and Betcha, and the menu around them changes a lot from one app store listing to the next. Knowing which features each one carries is the difference between browsing and actually betting with intent.

The TAB app pairs a betting wallet with the racing product the TAB has run for decades. It covers horse and harness racing, rugby union, rugby league and other sports, both pre-match and live, and it carries a 17+ App Store age rating while stating that customers must be 18 or over to bet. Inside the app, Trackside streams live racing with in-app betting, form tools sit a tap away from the bet slip, and a simplified wallet handles deposits and withdrawals. Blackbook and Jockey Challenge tools are there for the racing side; the sports side leans on the same wallet and the same account. For a punter who wants one login that handles racing and sport and an in-house live stream, the TAB app is the one the Racing Industry Act 2020 was built around.

Betcha is the second TAB NZ online brand and runs on a separate product even though the operator and wallet are shared. Its Multi Builder lets punters assemble multi bets, copy trending multis and track live legs, and a multi-grid builds Same Game Multis from legs inside one match. The daily Toolbox carries odds boosts and insurance tools for bets that do not land, a Bet Social section lets punters chat, follow tipsters and share bets or pools, and a Playbook carries tips and match analysis. The shape is closer to what younger orcas-short-form punters expect from a betting app: social, builder-driven, with daily topical picks.

Outside those two, every other app a New Zealand search returns is an offshore brand. The list is long, and the apps are slick, but the legal frame is the one place to start: an offshore bookmaker taking a sports or racing bet from a person in New Zealand is breaking New Zealand law, and no offshore app comes with a New Zealand complaints route or a New Zealand harm-minimisation framework attached. The next sections of this page sit on top of that frame.

How a prediction is built: form, statistics, line-ups, and the market’s own odds

A prediction is not a vibe dressed up as analysis. The building blocks a tipster, a model, or a sharp punter uses are the same four inputs every time, and the order is what makes the difference between a guess and a forecast.

Form is the first input, and it is the most often abused. A team’s last five results, scored and conceded, home and away, against the kind of opposition it usually meets, is a baseline. Form data on its own is noisy: a four-game win streak in a weak conference and a four-game win streak before an international break mean different things, and a tipster who treats them as equivalent is selling a story. Read form in context, or read it as a single feature among several, not as the answer.

Statistics cover the second input. Expected goals (xG) for football, points per possession for basketball, run rates for cricket, possession-adjusted territory for rugby — these adjust raw results for the quality of opposition and the pace of the game. A 1-0 win with 0.4 xG is not the same outcome as a 1-0 win with 2.1 xG. Markets price on outcomes, but a model that prices on the underlying process finds the gaps between the two. The gap is where value bets live.

Line-ups come third. A team sheet 60 minutes before kick-off changes the price, and a prediction built the night before is, by definition, a prediction without the line-up. Models that re-run on confirmed teams — called “team-aware” models in the literature — outperform static ones. The tab or app shows the team sheet on the same screen that holds the bet slip; a prediction that ignores it is leaving money on the table or, more often, taking the worst of a price move.

The market’s own odds are the fourth input, and they are the input most punters skip. A bookmaker’s price is the public’s distilled view of the event, plus the book’s margin. When a private model says home win at 2.20 and the market says home win at 2.05, the gap is small but real, and the question is which side of it carries the edge. A prediction without checking against the price is a forecast in a vacuum.

Stack the four together and a prediction is a probability statement with a price attached. The probability sits on form, statistics, and line-ups; the price sits on whatever the bookmaker is offering. A value bet is the trade where the probability is higher than the price implies.

Value bets, staking, and why no tip is certain

A value bet is a wager whose price implies a lower chance of winning than the bettor’s own estimate. The arithmetic is simple and ruthless. If a punter’s model gives a team a 55% chance of winning and the bookmaker offers 2.00 (decimal), 2.00 implies a 50% chance. Five percentage points of edge — over many bets, that edge compounds. One bet is noise; one thousand bets at the same edge is profit, before variance and the book’s own pricing mistakes get stripped out.

Staking is the multiplier on that edge. Flat staking (the same dollar amount on every bet) is the cleanest baseline and the easiest to track. Kelly staking — wagering a fixed share of bankroll proportional to the edge — grows faster in good runs and bleeds faster in bad ones. Most serious punters run a “fractional Kelly” at a quarter or a half of the full Kelly size, which trades some upside for a smoother ride. Bankroll discipline is the third leg: a separate betting account, a fixed bankroll, a stop-loss, and a rule that the bankroll never sees money earmarked for rent, bills, or groceries.

The phrase to remember is this: no tip is ever certain. Even a 70% favourite loses three times in ten. Markets price favourites as favourites because favourites lose often enough to make the upside worth paying for, and a tipster with a 60% hit rate is already elite. Anything sold as a “sure bet”, a “lock”, or a “guaranteed winner” is a sales pitch and not a forecast. The arithmetic of edge holds on average; it never holds on any single bet, and the punter who plans around a single bet is planning to lose.

A staking plan, a written bankroll, and a willingness to walk away after a bad run are the three habits that separate a punter with a plan from a punter with a phone full of open bets.

Reading the bookmaker’s margin — what a price hides

The bookmaker’s margin is the cut the book keeps out of every market. On a two-way market at decimal odds 1.90 and 1.90, the implied probabilities are 1 ÷ 1.90 = 52.63% on each side, totalling 105.26%. The extra 5.26 points above 100% are the margin. The payout share — what the book returns to bettors in aggregate per unit staked — is 1 ÷ 1.0526 ≈ 95.0%. The book keeps about 5% on every New Zealand dollar bet on that illustrative market.

Markets with three or more outcomes — a 1X2 football line, a horse race with eight runners — push the margin higher as more outcomes are added, because each one carries a slice of the overround. The same 5% margin sits inside a multi bet, too: each leg adds its own overround, and the multiplication of prices hides a final payout share that can sit well below 90%. A punter who picks six correct legs of a six-leg multi is rare; a punter who picks six legs at a final payout share of 80% is rarer still, because the price has already paid for it.

Reading the margin is a habit, not a single formula. A punter who picks markets with thin margins — main lines, late price moves, in-play prices on liquid events — pays less per bet than a punter who loads up on long-shot props and novelty markets. Over a season, the difference is hundreds of dollars on a modest bankroll.

The Top 10 New Zealand betting brands, ranked on what they offer

A ranking in a country with one lawful bookmaker looks different from a ranking in a country with twenty. TAB and Betcha sit at the top because the law says they are the only two, and the other eight are listed because New Zealand punters meet them in search results and on social. None of the offshore brands is legal in New Zealand, and the ranking below is a comparison of features, not a recommendation to sign up.

The spread is wider than the column allows. TAB and Betcha are the only two with a racing product, the only two with a New Zealand complaints route, and the only two with the harm-minimisation framework New Zealand law requires. The offshore brands carry varied sportsbooks, deeper esports and casino line-ups in several cases, and crypto-friendly wallets — none of which constitutes a New Zealand licence.

Overview: the New Zealand sports betting landscape

The New Zealand sports betting landscape shrank to a single provider on 28 June 2025. Before that date, a New Zealand punter was free to open an account with any of dozens of offshore brands and place a bet; since that date, the only lawful online racing and sports betting brands in the country are TAB NZ and Betcha. The Department of Internal Affairs told unlicensed providers to withdraw with immediate effect, and the change is permanent: there is no licence route for another bookmaker and no register for betting licences, because there is only one lawful operator.

The change sits in section 74AAA of the Racing Industry Act 2020, inserted by the Racing Industry Amendment Act 2025. The clause draws a clean line: no person other than TAB NZ may offer racing betting, sports betting, or other racing or sports betting to a person in New Zealand, regardless of where that person is resident or incorporated. TAB NZ runs the betting business under a 25-year partnership with Entain signed in 2023 — Entain takes a 50/50 share of gross profits, with at least $150 million a year going to TAB NZ for the first five years, and Entain pledged a one-off $100 million payment to the racing sector when the deal was signed.

Greyhound racing is closing in stages from 1 August 2026, and from that date offshore operators may not take bets on greyhound races either. The change does not reopen the betting monopoly; it closes one racing code that the monopoly covered.

The law targets the operator, not the player. Section 19(4) of the Gambling Act 2003 says an individual may not be convicted for placing a bet with an offshore betting operator in breach of section 74AAA, and no published penalty for a player was found. DIA warns that overseas operators may be in jurisdictions with minimal consumer safeguards, may not return unspent credits, and may not pay out large wins — a warning, not a prosecution.

The legal frame: who may take a New Zealand bet, and under what rules

The Department of Internal Affairs is the gambling regulator under the Gambling Act 2003 and monitors compliance with the betting prohibition. The Racing Industry Act 2020 establishes TAB NZ as the sole betting provider for racing and sports in New Zealand, and the Racing Industry Amendment Act 2025 turns that into a hard prohibition on any other operator serving a person in New Zealand. The change took effect on 28 June 2025.

The Offshore racing and sports bets point-of-consumption charge ceased on 30 June 2026. Online gambling duty — 12% of profits since 1 July 2024, rising to 16% from 1 January 2027 — applies to overseas operators supplying New Zealand residents. A duty being payable does not make an offer lawful; an operator paying the duty to Inland Revenue is still breaking section 74AAA by taking the bet at all.

TAB NZ pays a separate Problem Gambling Levy of 0.74%, in force from 1 July 2025 to 30 June 2028. The levy funds harm-minimisation services including the Gambling Helpline and Safer Gambling Aotearoa. Offshore brands operating outside New Zealand do not pay the levy, and the harm-minimisation framework attached to the levy does not follow the offshore bet.

The Online Casino Gambling Act 2026 licenses online casino gambling only; TAB New Zealand won the right to apply for a casino licence, but the casino right does not extend the betting monopoly. A punter looking for a New Zealand-licensed casino product will find one through the casino channel, not the sports-betting channel.

What may be bet on is racing and sports, through TAB NZ. Inside that bracket, TAB NZ takes fixed-odds and tote (pool) bets, with published betting rules covering Win, Place, Each Way, Quinella, Exacta, Trifecta, First4, Double, Treble, Daily Double, Running Double, Quaddie, Big6, and Multis including Same Game Multis. Live betting is listed in the TAB NZ apps. There is no statutory per-bet cap; the limits are TAB NZ’s own terms.

Whether esports betting counts as “sports betting” under the Racing Industry Act is not established. Bets on politics and novelty markets are not established. There is no lawful New Zealand betting exchange, and spread betting is outside TAB NZ’s sports-betting definition.

For the player, Inland Revenue guidance says recreational gambling winnings are generally not taxable, and prize money from TAB horse, dog, and trotting races is not taxable. A person who bets as a business is a different case — general information, not tax advice. The bettor who runs a serious model needs to be talking to an accountant, not to Inland Revenue’s general guidance line.

The Advertising Standards Authority’s Gambling Advertising Code applies to betting advertisements. Ads must not target children (under 14) or young people (14 to under 18), judged by context, appeal and expected audience; must not encourage harm; and must be truthful with terms available. No New Zealand equivalent of a “whistle-to-whistle” ban for betting exists.

Responsible gambling: tools and where help is

A prediction is a forecast, and a forecast does not need to be acted on. The tools that keep the action in proportion are the same in TAB and Betcha — the two brands sit on one TAB NZ account — and they are listed in the apps.

Deposit limits cap the money that goes in. A punter sets a daily, weekly, or monthly ceiling, and the wallet refuses deposits above it. The cap applies across both TAB and Betcha because the accounts are linked.

Time-outs pause the account for a chosen window — a day, a week, a month — and the punter cannot log in to bet until the window closes. Self-exclusion is the heavier version, set for a longer period, and an exclusion applies across TAB and Betcha. Both are operator-level tools, not part of a national register; the national exclusion register the casino law will require is for online casinos only.

The age for TAB NZ betting is 18; betting under 18 is an offence under section 89 of the Racing Industry Act 2020. Land-based casinos are 20 — the two ages do not merge, and a 20+ casino rule does not extend to the betting app.

Help, when the tools are not enough, runs through the free Gambling Helpline on 0800 654 655, or by text on 8006. Safer Gambling Aotearoa is the harm-minimisation service the Problem Gambling Levy funds. The helpline is free, confidential, and staffed around the clock.

Offshore brands — every brand in this page’s top 10 below TAB and Betcha — do not carry this framework. A punter with an offshore account can set limits inside the app where the brand offers them, but the New Zealand helpline still takes the call, the New Zealand harm-minimisation funding still pays for the call, and the offshore brand does not get a vote in how the call goes.

TAB (TAB NZ) — the only lawful online racing and sports bookmaker

TAB is the betting brand New Zealand grew up with. The wallet, the racing product, the live stream, the form tools — all of it sits inside one app that has been the country’s bookmaker for decades. Since 28 June 2025, TAB has also been the only lawful online option for racing and sports betting, alongside its sister brand Betcha.

What TAB gives the New Zealand punter is racing first, sport second, and a single wallet doing both. Trackside streams live racing with in-app betting, form data sits next to the bet slip on every race, Blackbook and Jockey Challenge tools give the racing regular a sharper read on form, and a simplified wallet handles deposits and withdrawals without three pages of menus. The sports menu covers rugby union, rugby league, and other sports, both pre-match and live. The app carries a 17+ App Store rating while stating that customers must be 18 or over.

What TAB costs the punter is the usual cost of a monopoly: limited competition on price, no welcome bonus from a rival to set a benchmark, and feature development paced by the operator’s own targets. The Racing Industry Act 2020 fixes TAB’s position; Entain’s 25-year partnership sets the operational tempo.

For a New Zealand punter who wants to bet inside the law with New Zealand harm-minimisation tools attached, TAB is the only lawful choice, and Betcha is its social-and-builder extension. The pairing is closer to “TAB plus a younger sibling” than “TAB versus Betcha”.

Betcha (TAB NZ) — the Multi Builder social app on the same wallet

Betcha is the second TAB NZ online brand, and the gap from TAB is feature-led, not licence-led. Both brands sit under TAB New Zealand, share the same wallet, and feed off the same harm-minimisation framework. Where TAB reads as the traditional bookmaker, Betcha reads as a builder-driven social app for punters who like a multi and a chat.

The Multi Builder is the centrepiece. Punt assemble multi bets, copy trending multis from other punters, and track live legs through the bet slip. A multi-grid builds Same Game Multis from legs inside one match — the modern equivalent of a same-game multi on a sportsbook, where the legs stack on a single event for a longer price. The daily Toolbox carries odds boosts and insurance tools for bets that do not land, with the exact terms sitting in the bet slip rather than on a banner. Bet Social is the social layer: punt chat, follow tipsters, share bets or pools. The Playbook carries tips and match analysis from the brand’s editorial team.

What Betcha costs the punter is the cost of social-product design: trending multis are other punters’ bets, not the house’s best read, and copying them is closer to following a tipster than to building a value trade. The odds boosts and insurance tools come with terms; the bet slip shows them, but a punt copied from a chat is rarely a punt that gets read in detail.

For a New Zealand punter who wants TAB’s wallet and harm-minimisation framework but a builder-led product with social feed and daily promotions, Betcha is the lawful choice and a different product from TAB. For a punter whose style is form, statistics, and the price, TAB’s racing-first layout is the closer fit.

Thunderpick — crypto and esports, but not licensed in New Zealand

Thunderpick is a Curaçao-licensed brand (licence OGL/2024/677/0722, held by Paloma Media B.V.), serving a global user base from outside New Zealand. Its product is crypto-led — deposits in BTC, ETH, USDT and other coins — and its centre of gravity is esports and crypto casino, with a sportsbook layered on top.

What Thunderpick gives a non-New Zealand punter is a sleek crypto sportsbook with deep esports coverage and instant crypto withdrawals. What it offers in New Zealand is a product the law does not authorise. New Zealand’s prohibition on sports betting covers any operator other than TAB NZ, regardless of where that operator is incorporated, and a Curaçao licence confers no right to offer service in this country. There is no New Zealand complaints route for a Thunderpick dispute; harm-minimisation tools may exist inside the app, but New Zealand’s helpline and Safer Gambling Aotearoa do not extend to the brand’s product.

For a New Zealand punter whose interest is esports and crypto, Thunderpick is one of several offshore brands meeting that interest. None of them is legal in New Zealand, and the Curaçao licence does not change that.

Millioner — pre-match and live sportsbook, not licensed in New Zealand

Millioner sits in the broader offshore tier with a sportsbook-first product. Its menu lists pre-match and live sports across football, tennis, table tennis, basketball, ice hockey, American football and baseball, with separate Live Betting and Virtual Sports sections. There is no racing product and no New Zealand licence.

What Millioner gives a non-New Zealand punter is breadth — seven sports covered pre-match and live, plus a Virtual Sports tab for simulated events between real fixtures. Its offshore licence provides no standing for New Zealand players, and the national harm-minimisation framework does not apply.

For a New Zealand punter comparing the offshore tier on breadth of sports, Millioner is a clear seven-sport sportsbook. The licensing position is the same as every other brand in this tier, and that is where the comparison has to stop.

RoyalistPlay — Tobique-licensed casino and sportsbook, not licensed in New Zealand

RoyalistPlay carries a Tobique Gaming Commission e-gaming licence (No. 0000002), held by Novatrix SRL. The product is casino and sportsbook, and the licence is one of the newer Caribbean regulator frameworks that have grown up alongside the older Curaçao licensing system. There is no New Zealand licence.

What RoyalistPlay offers a non-New Zealand punter is a casino-and-sportsbook pairing under a Tobique licence, with the regulator’s compliance framework sitting behind the bet slip. For a New Zealand user, though, the offshore caveat applies: the brand lacks authority to serve this market, and no local harm-minimisation framework is attached.

For a New Zealand punter looking at offshore brands by licence framework, RoyalistPlay is one of several Tobique-licensed brands in the tier. The actual betting product is the standard offshore sportsbook shape, and the New Zealand legal position is fixed.

LegendPlay — Anjouan-licensed sportsbook, not licensed in New Zealand

LegendPlay’s licence is from the Anjouan Gaming Authority (the Autonomous Island of Anjouan, Union of Comoros), another Caribbean-adjacent regulator that has issued licences to a wave of offshore brands. The product menu lists Sports, Live Betting and Virtual Sports sections, with football, tennis, basketball and ice hockey named.

What LegendPlay offers a non-New Zealand punter is an Anjouan-licensed sportsbook with a Live Betting tab and a Virtual Sports tab. New Zealand players face the same offshore caveat that applies to every brand in this tier.

For a New Zealand punter, the comparison between LegendPlay and the other Anjouan-licensed brands is feature-on-feature, not licence-on-licence — both are outside New Zealand’s framework, and both carry the same offshore status.

Telbet — crypto welcome package, Russian-language focus, not licensed in New Zealand

Telbet describes itself as a crypto casino and sportsbook. Its welcome offer, on the Russian-language version of its site, is 200% up to 1 BTC plus 50 free spins and a 5 USDT free bet. The product is crypto-wallet-led and the language focus is Russian-language rather than English.

What Telbet offers a non-New Zealand punter is a crypto welcome package large in absolute terms (1 BTC at the time of writing is several thousand New Zealand dollars) and tied to standard bonus terms. New Zealand players encounter the offshore caveat, compounded by the site’s primary Russian language and support focus.

For a New Zealand punter, Telbet is the cleanest “wrong tier for the audience” example in this ranking. Offshore brands exist at this depth, but the welcome offer is not in New Zealand dollars, the language is not English, and the licence gives no right to take bets from a person in New Zealand.

Golden Panda — sports, esports, virtual sports, and prediction markets, not licensed in New Zealand

Golden Panda bundles a sportsbook, esports, virtual sports, casino, live casino, crash games, rewards, cashback, a VIP Club, Golden Goals and Prediction Markets under one account. The breadth is the product.

What Golden Panda gives a non-New Zealand punter is a single account with a sportsbook, an esports tab, and a Prediction Markets tab alongside the usual casino product. The Prediction Markets feature is a product category rather than a regulatory category, and the brand sits under the same licensing frame as the rest of the offshore tier.

For a New Zealand punter browsing offshore brands by feature breadth, Golden Panda is among the broader ones. The legality is unchanged.

BigClash — Curaçao-licensed sportsbook and esports, not licensed in New Zealand

BigClash carries a Curaçao licence (8048/JAZ). Its product covers pre-match and live sports betting across international and local leagues, plus virtual sports and esports betting on FPS and MOBA titles.

What BigClash offers a non-New Zealand punter is a Curaçao-licensed sportsbook with esports depth on FPS (first-person shooters like Counter-Strike) and MOBA (multiplayer online battle arenas like League of Legends) titles — a meaningful distinction for a punter focused on competitive gaming. New Zealand players face the same offshore caveat as elsewhere in this tier.

For a New Zealand punter with an esports focus, BigClash is one of the offshore brands to compare. The licence is standard Curaçao, and the New Zealand position is fixed.

BillyBets — sportsbook and casino, mobile-optimised, not licensed in New Zealand

BillyBets runs a casino and a sportsbook under one account. The sportsbook covers football, tennis, table tennis, basketball, ice hockey, American football, baseball, combat sports, esports, virtual sports and live betting — the broadest explicit sport list in this tier. The product supports three odds formats: Decimal (2.00), American (+100) and Fractional (1/1), and the site runs on Android and iOS through the mobile-optimised platform.

What BillyBets gives a non-New Zealand punter is breadth across eleven sports, three odds formats, and 24/7 live chat support. Its own terms note that the company gives no assurance on the legality of gambling in the player’s own jurisdiction and leaves the check to the player — a candid disclaimer that the offshore tier often lacks.

What BillyBets gives a New Zealand punter is the offshore caveat again, but at least the disclaimer is honest about it. For a New Zealand punter, the breadth is real and the legality is fixed, and the two facts are not in tension.

Frequently asked questions

What is a value bet and why is no tip ever certain?

A value bet is a wager whose price implies a lower chance of winning than your own estimate of the chance. If your model gives a team a 55% chance and the bookmaker offers decimal odds 2.00 — implying 50% — the price is better than the probability, and that gap is the edge. No tip is certain because probabilities are not certainties: a 70% favourite still loses three times in ten, and markets price favourites as favourites precisely because the long-run hit rate is well below 100%. A tipster with a 60% hit rate is already elite.

What is the bookmaker’s margin and how can it be seen in the odds?

The bookmaker’s margin is the cut the book keeps from every market. On an illustrative two-way market at decimal odds 1.90 / 1.90, the implied probabilities are 52.63% on each side, totalling 105.26%; the extra 5.26 points are the margin. The payout share is 1 ÷ 1.0526, about 95%, meaning the book keeps roughly 5% on every New Zealand dollar wagered on that market. Markets with more outcomes push the margin higher, and multi bets multiply the per-leg margins.

How is the return on a bet worked out from the stake and the odds?

Return = stake × decimal odds. A $10 bet at 2.50 returns $25 (your $10 stake plus $15 profit). A combination bet multiplies the odds of the legs: two legs at 2.00 and 3.00 give combined odds of 6.00, and a $10 stake returns $60 ($10 stake plus $50 profit). The return is what the book pays on a win; it does not predict the chance of a win.

Which bookmaker may lawfully take sports and racing bets in New Zealand?

TAB NZ and its online sister brand Betcha, under section 74AAA of the Racing Industry Act 2020 as amended, which took effect on 28 June 2025. There is no licence to apply for and no licence register for bookmakers. The two brands run on one TAB NZ account with shared harm-minimisation tools.

Which tools for controlling play do TAB and Betcha offer, and who can be called for help?

The TAB NZ apps list deposit limits, time-outs, and self-exclusion, and an exclusion applies across both TAB and Betcha because they share one account. For help outside the apps, the free Gambling Helpline is 0800 654 655, or text 8006, and Safer Gambling Aotearoa is the funded harm-minimisation service.

How are decimal odds such as 2.10 turned into a return?

Return = stake × decimal odds. A $20 stake at 2.10 returns $42 (your $20 stake plus $22 profit). Decimal odds already include the stake in the return — the format the Racing Industry Act 2020 frame uses throughout this page — and the implied probability is 1 ÷ decimal odds, so 2.10 implies roughly a 47.6% chance.

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